A new report released today from a survey of nearly 200 professionals representing startups indicates boom times are ahead for the augmented and virtual reality industry. 

According to survey respondents, plummeting hardware and software costs, increasingly impactful applications outside of entertainment, and the ubiquity of mobile devices are contributing to the rise of immersive technologies with momentum in nearly every sector increasing and, importantly, expanding avenues for monetization. 

The survey’s fourth annual iteration from global law firm Perkins Coie was developed in collaboration with industry-leading trade groups, XR Association, and industry venture capital firm Boost VC. A few findings from the survey you might find interesting include: 

• In one of the survey’s biggest findings, respondents will increasingly seek to diversify monetization strategies and expand revenue channels for immersive technology compared to their 2019 levels.

• Expectations for AR technologies continue to outpace VR in terms of expected revenue, market penetration, and consumer adoption with three-fourths of respondents expecting the AR market to eventually surpass VR in total revenue.  
• Outside of gaming and entertainment, respondents expect the most disruption from immersive in healthcare and medical devices over in the next 12 months.  
• Six of the 10 top cities selected for their pioneering work in smart city immersive technologies are in the United States, including New York, Austin, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, and San Francisco.  
• Respondents said that smaller devices and sleeker, more fashionable devices (tied at 42%) are the hardware improvements that will most impact consumer adoption of immersive technology in the next two years. More comfortable devices followed at 39%.  

You can find the full survey report here.

Tom Atkinson is Reviews & Dep. Editor at Tech Trends. Follow him on Twitter @techtrends_tech

The post Report: Industry Weighs in on the Future of AR and VR appeared first on Tech Trends.

Suppose you are a manufacturer, and your customer encounters a problem with your product. The product could be an appliance, a laptop computer, or a more complex piece of equipment like a generator. Your customer might attempt to troubleshoot the problem with online manuals or YouTube videos, or they might call the customer service helpline. Worst case scenario a technician must be dispatched to their home or place of business.

When using online manuals and YouTube videos, the customer is constantly attempting to convert abstract text, graphics or a video into actionable behaviors to fix the problem
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From a neuroscience of learning and performance perspective, all of these approaches are slow, error-prone, frustrating, and reduce customer confidence and satisfaction.

When using online manuals and YouTube videos, the customer is constantly attempting to convert abstract text, graphics or a video into actionable behaviors to fix the problem. The customer must constantly switch attention back and forth from the manual or video to the product while storing information in working memory. This process is challenging and places a heavy load on the cognitive and representational systems in the brain. From a cognitive perspective, the working memory, executive attention, and attention switching load is high. From a representational perspective, one must convert abstract information into an accurate mental representation. If lucky, the customer can fix the problem, but in many cases, they cannot.

The situation is no better on the phone with customer service. The customer struggles to find the words to describe the problem as they do not have the appropriate terminology available to communicate effectively. The customer service representative also struggles to translate the customer’s description into a meaningful dialogue to guide troubleshooting. Both the customer and the customer service representative feel like that are speaking different languages and communication is difficult. This is again a problem with cognitive and representational processing in the brain. Translating the problems and the solutions into words places a heavy load on working memory, attention, and mental representation processes. Both participants wish that the customer service representative could “see” the problem and “experience” the problem in real-time.

AR tools have great potential in troubleshooting and field service
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Dispatching a technician takes time and costs money. The technician must also have the requisite training to troubleshoot and fix the equipment. Technicians differ in their experience and skill level and a novice technician may need to revisit the manual, call an expert for advice, or even ask that a more experienced technician visit the site. This costs the vendor time and money, and every second that the product is “down” represents an inconvenience, a potential loss in revenue and decreased customer confidence and satisfaction in the product.

Now imagine an Augmented Reality (AR) solution to this problem.

AR Alternative to Manuals and Videos

Suppose the customer does not wade through online manuals or videos with the need for constant attention shifts but instead focuses their phone or tablet camera on the device where step-by-step instructions are provided for how to troubleshoot the problem. Built-in algorithms instruct the customer on what to do using text, arrows, highlighting or other tools. Critically, these are all being presented overlaid on the customers’ view of the product. The problem will be fixed quickly, accurately and the customer will be up and running, and satisfied with the service.

AR Alternative to Calling a Help Line

Suppose the customer does not want to fix the problem themselves but rather wants guidance. Instead of struggling with the communication problems inherent in a phone conversation suppose the customer focuses their phone or tablet camera on the device so that a customer service representative can see the product. Using AR software that includes text, arrows, highlighting or other tools, the representative can walk the customer through the troubleshooting process. The AR assets mitigate problems with communication fixing the problem quickly, accurately and leaving the customer satisfied.

AR Field Service

With the retirement of expertise in the industrial and manufacturing sectors, many field service technicians do not have the experience to solve all problems. With AR, when the field technician runs into trouble and needs guidance from an expert, they can use their phone, tablet, or wearable device to provide a first-person view for a more experienced remote field technician. This reduces the need for all technicians to have broad-based expertise.

AR provides experiences for human users, but it is critical that the content and temporal aspects of the presentation are optimized for human consumption
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AR tools have great potential in troubleshooting and field service. If your organization is interested in integrating AR tools into your troubleshooting and field service then a few considerations are in order. First, and foremost, AR provides experiences for human users, but it is critical that the content and temporal aspects of the presentation are optimized for human consumption. Augmented information can reduce the cognitive load, but can also overload the user with unnecessary information. Look for vendors who address these issues specifically and can present data to support the effectiveness of their offering. Second, if you are considering a do-it-yourself AR authoring tools be careful of the risk of cognitive overload. Good experimental testing and modification to optimize your tool is in order. Your goal is to provide users with “what” they want, “where” they need it, and “when” they need it.

Tech Trends offers a broad range of Digital Consultancy services to guide companies, individuals and brands in effectively leveraging existing and emerging technologies in their business strategy.

Todd Maddox is Science, Sports and Training Correspondent at Tech Trends, and the CEO of Cognitive Design and Statistical Consulting. Follow him on Twitter @wtoddmaddox

The post Report: Troubleshooting with XR appeared first on Tech Trends.

As the extended reality (XR) market matures, it appears to have reached a tipping point. Divergences in successful use cases are starting to make themselves evident, and questions have lingered around everything from consumer awareness and content availability to technology adoption, costs and ergonomics. While many of these questions are progressively being addressed and the sector is picking up momentum, VR Intelligence spoke to over 750 professionals working in and around XR to find out the state of XR today, and how the sector might evolve in the near to longer-term.

The extended reality (XR) market appears to have reached a tipping point
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The survey finds strong evidence that XR is establishing itself quickly and strongly in supporting enterprise but still struggling to gain a major foothold for consumers: almost half (49.2%) report that growth on the consumer side was weaker than expected, as opposed to just 25.7% in the VR for enterprise segment.

Attempting to chase this growth, XR technology and content providers are shifting their focus towards providing enterprise XR solutions, with 73% of these companies saying they are working on VR for enterprise functions and just under 65% doing the same for AR/MR, as opposed to less than half working on VR consumer functions and 37.4% working on AR/MR.

The survey finds strong evidence that XR is establishing itself strongly in enterprise but still struggling to gain a major foothold for consumers
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VR Intelligence spoke to over 750 professionals working in and around XR to find out the state of XR today, and how the sector might evolve in the near to longer-term
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Likewise, hardware, software and third-party content creators for extended reality (XR) are seeing much stronger enterprise growth compared to consumer sector growth over the last 12 months: almost half (49.2%) reported that growth on the consumer side was weaker than expected, as opposed to just 25.7% in the VR for enterprise segment.

One explanation of dip in XR for consumer applications may be the gaming industry; a significant source of early growth for XR, this years’ survey shows far less interest in gaming from XR technology companies: in 2018, 50% of respondents said that they intended to work within the gaming industry over the next 12 months, but this had fallen to just a third of respondents from the supply side of XR in the 2019 results. Despite this, consumer entertainment content creators in the XR space continue to find value in XR, with 75.9% of that segment reporting that VR had had a very or somewhat positive impact on their business, and 72.3% saying the same for AR/MR.

93% of enterprise users said that VR had had a positive impact on their business and 88.4% said the same for AR/MR
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Ultimately, the gains from successfully leveraging XR are real and demonstrable. 93% of enterprise users said that VR had had a positive impact on their business and 88.4% said the same for AR/MR. And in 2019, we have seen a series of high-profile announcements from the likes of Facebook, Google, Apple, Huawei and YouTube, suggesting 2020 could be a breakthrough year for consumer XR.

in 2019 we have seen a series of high-profile announcements from the likes of Facebook, Google, Apple, Huawei and YouTube, suggesting 2020 could be a breakthrough year for consumer XR
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To dissect more of these key trends and understand where the XR market is heading globally, VR Intelligence interviewed and surveyed over 750 XR professionals working at the sharp end of XR implementation, of whom 35% come from C-suite positions. Featuring real-world case studies and insights from HTC Vive, Oculus Rift, Intel, Nvidia and more, the XR Industry Insight Report takes a comprehensive dive into the XR landscape of today and seeks to distil what the future holds for this young but blossoming industry.

The XR Industry Insight Report includes:

• XR Growth Trends: In which areas is the industry seeing the greatest growth, and what is required for future growth?
• Immersive Technology for Enterprise in 2019: What has been the impact of enterprise XR and what are the challenges limiting further uptake?
• XR for Consumers: How has XR impacted B2C industries, why has consumer growth stalled and how can we increase consumer uptake?
• 2020: A Critical Year for XR: With a host of new products and services planned amid further development of AR and MR, will 2020 be the Year of XR?

VR Intelligence interviewed and surveyed over 750 XR professionals working at the sharp end of XR implementation
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Get the XR Industry Insight Report 2019-2020 here

The XR Industry Insight Report 2019-2020 was researched and produced association with VR Intelligence’s upcoming VRX Conference & Expo, taking place December 12-13, 2019, at the Hyatt Regency San Francisco Airport Hotel. Expecting more than 600 senior attendees from across gaming, entertainment, healthcare, retail, automotive industries and more, VRX is the world’s premier B2B immersive tech event for those wishing to use XR to boost ROI, propel their business forward and engage consumers through immersive, innovative experiences. More information can be found on the website.

You can also view the findings of the research in an infographic available here

Tech Trends is an official media partner of VRX 2019

Tech Trends offers a broad range of Digital Consultancy services to guide companies, individuals and brands in effectively leveraging existing and emerging technologies in their business strategy.

Alice Bonasio is a VR and Digital Transformation Consultant and Tech Trends’ Editor in Chief. She also regularly writes for Fast Company, Ars Technica, Quartz, Wired and others. Connect with her on LinkedIn and follow @alicebonasio on Twitter.

The post Report: XR Industry Insight 2019-2020 appeared first on Tech Trends.

Todd Maddox reports on why A/B tests are sub-optimal in building and optimizing immersive training and performance tools.

As with any young science or technology, the early wins are often large, but more wins are to follow if solid research and development is conducted that leverages what we know about the brain
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I have written extensively on the potential of virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) to revolutionize training and performance in healthcare, manufacturing, and corporate learning, to name a few. Learning is about the experience, and VR and AR are grounded in experiential learning. VR offers a virtual experience and AR overlays computer-generated assets onto the real world to drive learning and performance.

Learning is about the experience, and VR and AR are grounded in experiential learning
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Unfortunately, too often the primary focus is on the technology, with much less focus on optimizing the interface and the experience for the user (the UI/UX). Although computing power, specialized graphics, controllers, and the like are important, their value is diminished if they don’t engage the user’s brain in a way that is effective at achieving the desired training and performance goal. Too often the technological “wow” factor dominates when what is more important is how the user’s brain is engaged to achieve a set goal.

VR offers a virtual experience and AR overlays computer-generated assets onto the real world to drive learning and performance
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To optimize the UI/UX we must incorporate what is known about the brain and how it processes information, then apply the scientific method to test hypotheses and to identify the optimal solution. For example, one might test the hypothesis that a hands-free AR training solution leads to faster task completion than a hand-held AR training solution. To test this hypothesis, suppose that 10 workers completed the task with the hands-free AR solution, and 10 other workers completed the task with the hand-held AR training solution.

Unfortunately, too often the primary focus is on the technology, with much less focus on optimizing the interface and the experience for the user
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Under the assumption that the only difference between the two groups of workers is the type of training device, the time to completion would be noted for each of the 20 workers and a simple statistical test (called a Student’s t-test) would be conducted to compare the time to completion between the two groups. Although a detailed description of probability theory that underlies statistical reasoning is beyond the scope of this report, suffice it to say that the outcome of this statistical test allows one to claim (or not claim) beyond a “statistical reasonable doubt” that the hands-free AR solution leads to faster time to completion than the hand-held AR solution.

Too often the technological “wow” factor dominates when what is more important is how the user’s brain is engaged
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The experiment described above is referred to as an A/B test in the corporate sector. It is the simplest type of experiment that can be conducted, but it is extremely powerful and is used extensively. If you want to determine whether a new drug has the desired effect, you might conduct an A/B tests of the drug against a placebo. If you want to determine if your new technology or product is superior to the existing gold standard, you might conduct an A/B test. An A/B test allows you to test the hypothesis that one group is different from another on some outcome measure, such as time to completion.

To optimize the UI/UX we must incorporate what is known about the brain and how it processes information
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I spent 25 years teaching statistics and experimental design to University students, and during that time, I conducted 100s of experiments in my laboratory. I can count on one hand the number of A/B tests that I conducted.

An A/B test allows you to test the hypothesis that one group is different from another on some outcome measure, such as time to completion
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Why so few?

Although there is nothing wrong with an A/B test, factorial designs provide more value at no additional cost. In an A/B test there is one factor. In the example above, the factor would be the type of AR training device (hands-free vs. hand-held). Suppose a second factor was included that represented time pressure. Specifically, suppose that 5 of the workers using the hands-free device and 5 of the workers using the hand-held device were simply told to complete the task, whereas the other 5 from each group were told that they must complete the task within 15 minutes when it normally takes about 25 minutes. This factorial design has four groups of workers: hands-free/no time pressure, hands-free/time pressure, hand-held/no time pressure, and hand-held/time pressure. More importantly, it allows one to test three hypotheses.

• Hypothesis 1: Does a hands-free device speed time to completion?
• Hypothesis 2: Does time pressure speed or slow time to completion?
• Hypothesis 3: Does the presence or absence of time pressure affect time to completion differently for hands-free vs. hand-held AR training tool?

Although there is nothing wrong with an A/B test, factorial designs provide more value at no additional cost
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In the simple A/B test example, 20 workers completed the task, and Hypothesis 1 was tested. In the factorial design example, 20 workers completed the task and all three hypotheses could be tested. This is the power of a factorial design over an A/B test, and this is one reason why the overwhelming majority of experimental science, especially behavioral science, relies exclusively on factorial designs. A second reason follows from Hypothesis 3.

Hypothesis 3 is especially interesting and addresses the possibility that there is an “interaction” between time pressure and the nature of the device on time to completion. I would predict that a hands-free device is much less susceptible to the deleterious effects of time pressure than a hand-held device. Of course, this is an empirical question.

Interactions abound in the real world, especially the world of behavioral science. We have all heard of drug interactions. For example, some research suggests that a glass or two of wine can reduce stress, and a small dose of Xanax can reduce anxiety, but combining alcohol and Xanax can be fatal. That is a drug interaction. The combined effect of alcohol and Xanax is not simply the sum of the independent effects. Rather the effect is interactive, large, and potentially fatal.

Interactions abound in the real world, especially in behavioral science
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Anytime a human is involved and is physically processing something like a drug, or is mentally processing and engaging with technology, interactions are likely. This is the second reason why factorial designs are so popular. You will miss important findings if you focus exclusively on A/B tests.

The behavioral skills learning and performance system in the brain relies on the striatum and learns stimulus-response associations via incremental, dopamine-mediated reward and punishment learning
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The human brain is composed of multiple learning and performance systems. These include the cognitive learning and performance system in the brain that relies on the prefrontal cortex and is constrained by working memory and attentional limitation. The behavioral skills learning and performance system in the brain relies on the striatum and learns stimulus-response associations via incremental, dopamine-mediated reward and punishment learning. Interestingly, this system is not constrained by working memory and attention. In fact, “overthinking” hurts behavioral learning.

he emotional learning and performance system in the brain relies on the amygdala and other limbic structures
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The emotional learning and performance system in the brain relies on the amygdala and other limbic structures. This addresses issues of stress, pressure, and situational awareness broadly speaking. Finally, the experiential learning and performance system in the brain represents the sensory and perceptual aspects of the environment and relies on the occipital, temporal, and parietal lobes.

Anytime a human is mentally processing and engaging with technology, interactions are likely
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Each system has its own unique processing characteristics, and thus each system is optimized with different technologies and processes. For example, the critical bottleneck within the cognitive system is cognitive load. One almost always wants to reduce cognitive load. This means that the what, where, and when of VR or AR assets must be examined to determine the optimal combination to achieve a given goal. The best way to do this is with a factorial design.

VR and AR training and performance tools have already provided significant ROI relative to traditional training approaches
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The what, where, and when are each a separate factor that must be combined and studied factorially to optimize performance. The nature and timing of corrective feedback in the behavioral system must be examined with a factorial design, and of course the emotional and motivational aspects (stress, pressure, engagement) as well as the detailed sensory and perceptual processes must be examined.

You will miss important findings if you focus exclusively on A/B tests
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The basic science literature is full of fascinating results in each of these domains that can guide VR and AR product optimization, but in the end, one has to rely on science and factorial designs to “get it right”. The plethora of data that can be extracted from VR and AR solutions and the ease of manipulating relevant factors (what, where and when of assets or the nature of timing of the feedback) makes factorial designs straightforward to conduct.

The plethora of data that can be extracted from VR and AR solutions and the ease of manipulating relevant factors makes factorial designs straightforward to conduct
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VR and AR training and performance tools have already provided significant ROI relative to traditional training approaches. If you have a basic understanding of the breadth of neural engagement with these technologies, then you are not surprised by this ROI. Even so, these initial ROI benchmarks are a starting point. Much more ROI is awaiting those organizations who are ready to conduct the factorial design experiments necessary to find the “sweet spots” in the UI/UX, and there are many, that will show the true value of these technologies.

The nature and timing of corrective feedback in the behavioral system must be examined with a factorial design
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These immersive training and performance technologies are still in the early stage. They are reaping benefits for their users because of the way that they engage the brain relative to traditional approaches. As with any young science or technology, the early wins are often large, but more wins are to follow if solid research and development is conducted that leverages what we know about the brain, applies the scientific method, and uses factorial designs as a window onto the interactions that optimize UI/UX.

The basic science literature is full of fascinating results in each of these domains that can guide VR and AR product optimization
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For companies looking to get into Immersive technologies such as VR/AR/MR/XR our Virtual Reality Consultancy services offer guidance and support on how best to incorporate these into your brand strategy.

Todd Maddox is Science, Sports and Training Correspondent at Tech Trends, and the CEO of Cognitive Design and Statistical Consulting. Follow him on Twitter @wtoddmaddox

The post Building Better XR Training appeared first on Tech Trends.

A critical function in nearly all industrial and manufacturing settings is to provide high-quality and effective training in environmental health and safety (EHS). Although one might argue that EHS is not the most exciting or engaging topic, a strong understanding of EHS guidelines and most importantly an ability to ACT quickly and effectively under ANY CONDITIONS, including high stress and pressure, can be the difference between a smooth-running operation with only minor safety issues, and an environmental disaster.

The goal of this system is to train direct neural connections between sensory regions and motor regions in the brain that drive behavior
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The terms “act” and “any conditions” are emphasized for a reason. It is one thing to know “what” to do, to have the cognitive ability to verbalize the EHS guidelines, and to pass a written compliance test, but it is another thing (and mediated by different learning and performance systems in the brain) to know “how” to do it, and to be able to perform those behaviors under any conditions, including under high stress or pressure (referred to as situational awareness). The ability to verbalize and pass written tests is important for communication and compliance concerns, but the ability to behave appropriately regardless of the level of chaos and stress, is often the difference between life and death.

The key to xR technologies for training is that they are experience-based
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Because the learning systems in the brain that mediate a cognitive understanding of EHS are distinct from those that mediate a behavioral understanding of EHS and situational awareness, there is very little transfer of cognitive knowledge into behavioral understanding or situational awareness. This is a serious problem in EHS because the majority of EHS training targets a cognitive and not a behavioral understanding.

In this brief report I show that extended reality (xR) technologies hold great promise for training behavior and situational awareness in EHS. xR technologies reduce the burden on cognitive systems whose processing is adversely affected by stress and pressure, provide the opportunity for limitless behavioral practice in virtual or real-world settings, and speed learning and retention by broadly engaging multiple learning systems in the brain in synchrony.

Brain Science of Learning in EHS

The key to xR technologies for training is that they are experience-based. As Albert Einstein so eloquently stated

“Learning is an experience. Everything else is just information”

Experiential learning provides the foundation for the effectiveness of augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) applications in EHS. As elaborated below, experiential learning is effective because it facilitates the engagement of multiple learning systems in the brain in synchrony.

The human brain is comprised of at least three distinct learning systems. A schematic of the learning systems is provided in the figure below. The cognitive skills learning system in the brain has evolved to obtain and process knowledge and facts. Whether studying the EHS rules and regulations, reading text or watching a video showing you how to test and don a respirator, or taking a compliance test, the cognitive skills learning system is being recruited. Cognitive skill learning tends to involve processing text and schematics and is limited by the learner’s working memory and attention span. It requires focus and mental repetition for long-term memory storage. The cognitive skills learning system encompasses the prefrontal cortex, hippocampus and associated medial temporal lobe structures in the brain. The ultimate goal of this system is to transfer knowledge from short term memory in the prefrontal cortex to long term memory in the hippocampus and medial temporal lobes. Processing in this system is adversely affected by stress, pressure, and anxiety. The cognitive skills system is slow to develop, not reaching maturity until individuals are in their 20’s, and begins to decline in middle age.

The human brain is comprised of at least three distinct learning systems
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A critical function in nearly all industrial and manufacturing settings is to provide high-quality and effective training in environmental health and safety
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The behavioral skills learning system in the brain has evolved to learn behaviors. It is one thing to know what to do, but it is completely different to know how to do it. Knowing the safety rules and regulations is completely different from knowing how to initiate those behaviors in an emergency. Memorizing the location of the fire equipment and the steps to take to use it is completely different from being able to take the shortest path to the equipment and quickly and accurately engaging the equipment in fighting a fire. Behavioral skills are learned by doing. Processing in this system is optimized when behavior is interactive and is followed in real-time (literally within milliseconds) by corrective feedback. Behaviors that are rewarded will be more likely to occur in the future, and behaviors that are punished will be less likely to occur in the future. Interestingly, this system does not rely on working memory and attention, and “overthinking it” hinders behavioral skills learning. Behavioral skill learning is mediated by the basal ganglia and gradual, incremental dopamine-mediated changes in behavior. The ultimate goal of this system is to train direct neural connections between sensory regions and motor regions in the brain that drive behavior.

One advantage of VR is that you can be transported into any situation, including chaotic situations in which you will need to make fast and accurate decisions under pressure
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The experiential learning system has evolved to represent the sensory aspects of an experience, whether visual, auditory, tactile or olfactory. Every experience is unique and adds rich context to cognitive and behavioral skills learning. Experiential learning (in combination with emotional learning systems; not displayed in the figure above) is the key to situational awareness. By training individuals under a broad array of setting including those that occur infrequently, those that involve chaotic and high-stress conditions, or those that require quick action, you are training the broad-based situational awareness that is critical in EHS. It is the nuance and unique aspects of an experience that lead to generalized learning and transfer from the specific training scenario to other related situations that develops situational awareness. The critical brain regions associated with experiential learning differ as a function of the sensory input. Visual representations are formed in the occipital lobes and auditory representations are formed in the temporal lobes. Tactile representations are formed in the parietal lobes and olfactory information is represented in the piriform cortex and olfactory bulb.

Some xR Applications in EHS

Suppose you work in a chemical plant with a large number of flammable chemicals. Should a fire break out, there are a number of steps that you must follow to contain the blaze. This includes:

• taking the shortest path from your current location to the fire suppression equipment
• donning some protective gear
• connecting some hoses, flipping some switches
• returning to the blaze via the shortest path, and
• directing the fire extinguisher directly at the fire

To “learn” these steps you could read a manual with text and figures. This places a heavy load on working memory and attention to translate the abstract information into a visual representation of the steps you would need to take during a fire. Alternatively, you could read the manual and also watch a video that demonstrates the steps being taken by an actor or via animation. This is better because the experiential systems in your brain are being engaged to some degree. However, in both cases, you are likely sitting at a desk and are attempting to store this information in memory for use later during a real-world situation in which your and your co-worker’s safety is in jeopardy from a chemical fire.

Alternatively, suppose an AR tool, such as a Hololens, is used during training. You pick a random location on the factory floor, don the Hololens and start the AR fire training protocol. The system knows your location and tracks your movements. Using visual cues like colored arrows, you are directed to the fire suppression equipment via the shortest possible path. You are given step-by-step directions (verbally, visually, or both) on how to don the appropriate safety equipment, prepare the fire suppression equipment, and are then directed to the fire. Once at the fire, visual cues are provided that direct you on how to start the equipment. This whole process is timed, the system notes what steps you performed correctly and incorrectly, and all of this information is made available to you and your supervisor. In this case, you are “learning by doing” with step-by-step guidance and feedback being provided. You are not only gaining a cognitive understanding of the steps to take, but you are being trained simultaneously on the relevant behaviors. You can repeat this process periodically from different locations on the factory floor, and at some point, you can be tested without the AR cues.

An AR tool could also be used to provide general training on all of the safety equipment in the plant. You might don some AR glasses that direct you to predefined locations in the workplace. At each location, your view of the workplace is augmented with static text overlays or dynamic video that provides specific information on the safety guidelines or usage of safety tools. For specific safety equipment, you could receive step-by-step instructions or visual labels describing exactly how the equipment works. You might then be asked to demonstrate your skill with a specific safety tool, with or without text-based prompting and receive real-time feedback.

An AR tool could be used to provide general training on all of the safety equipment in the plant
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VR tools are also effective for EHS training. One advantage of VR is that you can be transported into any situation, including chaotic situations in which you will need to make fast and accurate decisions under pressure. For example, you might don a VR headset and be transported into the middle of a workplace emergency. You might scan your virtual environment watching personnel follow or fail to follow the guidelines within this chaotic situation while receiving auditory feedback on the appropriate actions. VR also allows you to experience rare, but potentially catastrophic situations, such as a chemical explosion or chemical spill.

In these AR and VR examples, there is minimal need to translate abstract text or figures into a visual representation because this information is being supplemented with experiential learning that is proximal and salient. Because multiple brain systems are active, the memory traces in each system are strong and interconnected. Behavioral learning will also occur when you demonstrate your skill with safety tools and receive feedback either with the AR tool, or in VR with haptic feedback incorporated. The applications of xR technology in EHS are many.

For companies looking to get into Immersive technologies our VR Consultancy service offers comprehensive support in strategic deployment of Virtual, Augmented and Mixed Reality

Todd Maddox is Science, Sports and Training Correspondent at Tech Trends, and the CEO of Cognitive Design and Statistical Consulting. Follow him on Twitter @wtoddmaddox

The post Report: XR Health and Safety Training appeared first on Tech Trends.

Why extended Reality (xR) is an Effective Tool in Manufacturing: A Brain Science Analysis.

This report focuses on a learning science evaluation of extended reality (xR) technology’s potential as a learning and training tool in the manufacturing sector. xR technologies come in two major forms: augmented reality (AR) – in which the learner is in a real environment where digital information is overlaid onto the learner’s field of view –  and virtual reality (VR) – in which the learner is immersed in a completely new virtual environment separate from their physical surroundings.

This report shows that xR technologies hold great promise in manufacturing because they reduce the cognitive load on the learner, provide the opportunity for limitless practice, and speed learning and retention by broadly engaging multiple learning systems in the brain in synchrony.

The Importance of Learning and Training in Manufacturing

High quality training tools are necessary to enhance accuracy and efficiency in the manufacturing process, where one mistake or small inefficiency can have significant ripple effects that are costly and time-consuming. For example, individuals tasked with supply chain management must quickly and accurately evaluate inventory levels, place necessary orders, and facilitate the movement of supplies and goods. All personnel in manufacturing must be well versed on the environmental health and safety rules, regulations, and emergency action plans. This is critical for compliance purposes, but also to reduce the risk of accidents that can endanger workers and slow or stop the manufacturing process.

Experiential learning is effective because it engages multiple learning systems in the brain in synchrony
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Product development is critical and involves an iterative learning process in which prototypes are developed, evaluated, and ultimately lead to a viable product. Product manufacturing requires highly trained technicians to operate and maintain the manufacturing equipment. When the equipment breaks down operators must troubleshoot and address the problem as quickly, accurately and safely as possible. Field service is also important to keep customers happy and their equipment running smoothly.

This report focuses on a learning science evaluation of extended reality (xR) technology’s potential as a learning and training tool in the manufacturing sector
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Learning Science of Training in Manufacturing

“Learning is an experience. Everything else is just information” Albert Einstein

This is an insightful quote from Albert Einstein that is supported by learning science—the marriage of psychology and brain science. As elaborated below, experiential learning is effective because it facilitates the engagement of multiple learning systems in the brain in synchrony. Experiential learning also provides the foundation for the effectiveness of AR and VR in manufacturing and other sectors.

The human brain is comprised of at least three distinct learning systems
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The human brain is comprised of at least three distinct learning systems; a  schematic of theseis provided in the figure below. The cognitive skills learning system in the brain has evolved to obtain and process knowledge and facts. Whether comparing inventory with a checklist, studying safety rules and regulations, reading equipment training manuals, or vetting product descriptions, the cognitive skills learning system is being recruited.

Experiential learning provides the foundation for the effectiveness of AR and VR in manufacturing
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Cognitive skill learning tends to involve processing text and schematics and is limited by the learner’s working memory and attention span. It requires focus and mental repetition for long-term memory storage. The cognitive skills learning system encompasses the prefrontal cortex, hippocampus and associated medial temporal lobe structures in the brain. The ultimate goal of this system is to transfer knowledge from short term memory in the prefrontal cortex to long term memory in the hippocampus and medial temporal lobes. Processing in this system is adversely affected by stress, pressure, and anxiety. This system is slow to develop, not reaching maturity until individuals are in their 20’s, and begins to decline in middle age.

xR technologies reduce the cognitive load on the learner, providing opportunity for limitless practice and speed learning and retention by engaging multiple learning systems in the brain
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One mistake or small inefficiency can have a ripple effect throughout the manufacturing process that is costly and time-consuming
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The behavioral skills learning system in the brain has evolved to learn behaviors. It is one thing to know what to do, but it is completely different to know how to do it. Knowing the safety rules and regulations is completely different from knowing how to initiate those behaviors in an emergency. Memorizing the operations or repair manual for a piece of machinery is different from knowing how to operate or repair the machine. Behavioral skills are learned by doing.

Cognitive skill learning tends to involve processing text and schematics and is limited by the learner’s working memory and attention span
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Processing in this system is optimized when behavior is interactive and is followed in real-time (literally within milliseconds) by corrective feedback. Behaviors that are rewarded will be more likely to occur in the future, and behaviors that are punished will be less likely to occur in the future. Interestingly, this system does not rely on working memory and attention, and “overthinking it” hinders behavioral skills learning. Behavioral skill learning is mediated by the basal ganglia and gradual, incremental dopamine-mediated changes in behavior. The ultimate goal of this system is to train direct neural connections between sensory regions and motor regions in the brain that drive behavior.

As Einstein so eloquently stated, experience is at the heart of all learning. It is also the key ingredient in xR training. The experiential learning system has evolved to represent the sensory aspects of an experience, whether visual, auditory, tactile or olfactory. Every experience is unique, and adds rich context to cognitive and behavioral skills learning. The critical brain regions associated with experiential learning differ as a function of the sensory input. Visual representations are formed in the occipital lobes and auditory representations are formed in the temporal lobes. Tactile representations are formed in the parietal lobes and olfactory information is represented in the piriform cortex and olfactory bulb.

xR Applications in Manufacturing

The key ingredient of xR technology in manufacturing is that experiential learning systems are being recruited in synchrony with cognitive and/or behavioral learning systems. Here I outlined 5 use cases for xR in manufacturing.

The experiential learning system has evolved to represent the sensory aspects of an experience, whether visual, auditory, tactile or olfactory
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Supply Chain: Suppose you are tasked with inventory control. In a typical scenario, you might approach each set of inventory, count it, note this on a clipboard or tablet, and tag inventory that is low and in need of replenishment. In this case, your cognitive system is highly engaged. You must focus on the inventory and count it, then shift attention to the clipboard or tablet, find the appropriate location, write the number down, then repeating the process. The working memory and attention load are high, attention switching is necessary, and thus, the potential for error and reduced efficiency is also very high.

Every experience is unique, and adds rich context to cognitive and behavioral skills learning
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Now consider the same situation but where you don a pair of augmented reality glasses. You scan the inventory room and visual cues on the display direct you to the first set of items to be counted. You scan the items and a built-in algorithm counts the number of items present and the number needed. When the inventory is low a warning is presented and you are asked to tag this item for replenishment. The glasses then direct you to next inventory item to be counted. Once the inventory process is complete the system prompts you to send the inventory needs to the relevant purchasing departments. In this case, your cognitive load is reduced, attention switching is minimized, the experiential and cognitive systems are engaged, and you are guided through the process in the most behaviorally efficient method possible. The process is faster and more accurate and the likelihood of a supply chain error is reduced.

It is one thing to know what to do, but it is completely different to know how to do it
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Environmental Health and Safety: Suppose you work in a manufacturing plant and you need to learn the steps to take to keep the workplace safe. You could read a workplace safety manual that describes the rules and regulations with text and figures. This places a heavy load on working memory and attention to translate the abstract information into a visual representation of the steps you would need to take during a safety incident. Alternatively, you could read the manual and also watch a video that shows actual or simulated safety conditions. This is better because the experiential systems in your brain are being engaged to some degree. However, in both cases, your goal is to store this information in memory for use later during a real-world situation in which your and your co-worker’s safety is in jeopardy.

Behavioral skills are learned by doing
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Alternatively, you could be directed to predefined locations in the workplace while wearing augmented reality glasses. At each location your view of the workplace is augmented with static text overlays or dynamic video that provides specific information on the safety guidelines or usage of safety tools. For specific safety equipment, you could receive step-by-step instructions or visual labels describing exactly how the equipment works. You might then be asked to demonstrate your skill with a specific safety tool, with or without text-based prompting and receive real time feedback. Analogously, you might don a VR headset and be transported into the middle of a workplace emergency. You might scan your virtual environment watching personnel follow or fail to follow the guidelines within this chaotic situation while receiving auditory feedback on the appropriate actions.

In AR and VR, there is minimal need to translate abstract text or figures into a visual representation because this information is being supplemented with experiential learning that is proximal and salient
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In the AR and VR examples, there is minimal need to translate abstract text or figures into a visual representation because this information is being supplemented with experiential learning that is proximal and salient. Because multiple brain systems are active, the memory traces in each system are strong and interconnected. Behavioral learning will also occur when you demonstrate your skill with safety tools and receive feedback either with the AR tool, or in VR with haptic feedback incorporated.

Product Development and Prototyping: Suppose you are part of the product development team. This is an iterative process in which schematics and computer aided design (CAD) tools are utilized and ultimately lead to the development of a prototype. As with reading text and studying static figures, this places a heavy load on the cognitive skills system in the brain to construct a 3D dynamic image from a series of 2D static images. It is difficult to know if this translation is effective for each member of the team and whether all team members “visualize” the same product. This is suboptimal and inefficient.

Instead, imagine donning an AR or VR tool in which a virtual 3D dynamic prototype is presented simultaneously to all members of the product development team early in the development process. The team is either physically present in a single room or are virtually collaborating via VR. Either way, all team members can view the single prototype, can “hold” it in their hands, and can manipulate the prototype –  all while discussing specific design features that they like or dislike. In this case, the cognitive load is minimized because a 3D dynamic prototype is present from the start. In addition, because the prototype can be shared virtually, team members in any location can collaborate.

The key ingredient of xR technology in manufacturing is that experiential learning systems are being recruited in synchrony with cognitive and/or behavioral learning systems
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Equipment Operation and Repair Training: Suppose you are training on the operation and repair of a large, expensive, and rare piece of equipment. Because there are only a few training centers around the world you begin by reading and memorizing the operations and repair manuals. Then you fly to a training center for an intensive 6-week course where you attend classroom training sessions and obtain hands-on equipment training. Once the training is complete you return to work as a certified operator and repair technician. Although certified, there is still much on-the-job learning to obtain to become an expert. In this scenario, you begin the training process with a heavy load on the cognitive system as you attempt to construct 3D dynamic representations of the equipment from 2D static training manuals. With that information in hand you begin the intensive hands-on training that will facilitate behavioral skills learning. Although the practice is intense, it is impossible to obtain enough experience in a 6-week course to attain expertise.

The experiential and cognitive systems are engaged, and you are guided through the process in the most behaviorally efficient method possible
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Now suppose that you begin the training process by exploring the equipment in virtual reality. You can walk around and view the equipment while receiving verbal or written instructions about the specific operations of each part. If you have haptic hardware, you can touch the equipment and manipulate it, again being driven by verbal or written instructions. You might even have a virtual trainer in the same room with you pointing out specific features and answering questions.

Instead of flying elsewhere to a training facility, you might don your VR headset each day for virtual lessons, and your homework might involve troubleshooting an array of equipment malfunctions
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Instead of flying elsewhere to a training facility, you might don your VR headset each day for virtual lessons, and your homework might involve troubleshooting an array of equipment malfunctions. You might even be placed in a virtual emergency situation in which you receive real-time feedback or as part of a test. Once certified, you might continue with more advanced VR training on more complex and rare emergency situations, but ones that can have a major impact on the manufacturing process. In this case, you are receiving cognitive and behavioral training simultaneously with experiential learning. There is no need for physical travel, and the rare and expensive piece of equipment is available, at your fingertips, 24/7. You can train on rare and dangerous situations that would be difficult, if not impossible, to simulate during real-world training. Your confidence and level of expertise will be higher and you will achieve these more quickly.

As Einstein stated, experience is at the heart of all learning. It is also the key ingredient in xR training
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The augmented and virtual content must be optimized for human consumption
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Troubleshooting and Field Service: Suppose you are a consumer of a manufactured product (e.g., computer, appliance, DIY furniture, etc.), and you attempt to troubleshoot some problem either with online manual, YouTube videos, or on the phone with a technician. You find yourself trying to convert the abstract information into actionable behaviors to fix the problem. You are constantly switching your attention back and forth from the manual or video to your product, or trying to find the right words to explain the problem on the phone wishing that the technician could “see” what you see. This is frustrating and ineffective.

With these technologies one can quickly obtain subjective ratings of confidence, satisfaction and engagement, or develop objective tests to determine whether learning has actually occurred and to challenge the learner
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When multiple brain systems are active memory traces in each system are strong and interconnected
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Big Data: The Hidden Bonus of xR Training

The focus of this report has been on the psychological and brain-based advantages of xR in manufacturing, but there is another advantage of xR technologies that is equally important and that is the promise of actionable data. With these technologies one can quickly obtain subjective ratings of confidence, satisfaction and engagement, or develop objective tests to determine whether learning has actually occurred and to challenge the learner. These can be combined with eye gaze and heat map patterns that provide a direct window onto attentional processes and engagement, or haptic data to provide real-time behavioral feedback. These data can be used to speed iteration toward optimal solutions and to quantify the ROI associated with xR technologies.

You can train on rare and dangerous situations that would be difficult, if not impossible, to simulate during real-world training
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Quality Content and Optimized User Experiences

AR and VR technologies offer promise as effective tools for manufacturing by facilitating broad engagement of cognitive, behavioral and experiential systems in the brain that are critical in manufacturing. A note of caution though. Although these tools have great potential in manufacturing, the tool in and of itself will not meet this challenge. These tools provide augmented and virtual experiences and information to human users.

Data can be used to speed iteration toward optimal solutions and to quantify the ROI associated with xR technologies
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Thus, the augmented and virtual content and temporal presentation of the content must be optimized for human consumption. Augmented information can reduce the cognitive load, but can also overload the user. Virtual information must be realistic and lead to a veridical sense of “presence”. Optimization follows from good experimental testing and modification. Fortunately, the rich and broad set of real-time data that can be extracted from AR and VR technologies makes this a viable and realistic prospect.

Virtual information must be realistic and lead to a veridical sense of presence
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For companies looking to get into Immersive technologies our VR Consultancy service offers comprehensive support in strategic deployment of Virtual, Augmented and Mixed Reality

Todd Maddox is Science, Sports and Training Correspondent at Tech Trends, and the CEO of Cognitive Design and Statistical Consulting. Follow him on Twitter @wtoddmaddox

The post Report: How XR Works With Your Brain appeared first on Tech Trends.

The latest forecast from technology analyst firm CCS Insight highlights some of the challenges facing makers of head-worn virtual and augmented reality devices. Despite early enthusiasm and a continued expectation of significant long-term potential for the technology, there is much work yet to be done on improving user experience, developing software platforms and – above all – making attractive content for those platforms available to consumers.

“We continue to believe that content is the key to unlocking adoption of VR. Although some games companies and adult content creators have embraced VR technology, much more needs to happen to persuade consumers that VR devices are a must-have item,” says Ben Wood, CCS Insight’s chief of research.

This sober yet positive message is the main conclusion of the company’s recently published global market report for VR and AR devices. In it, the research firm forecasts 8 million virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) headsets and glasses will be sold in 2018, down from 10 million in 2017, but growing to 14 million in 2019 and eventually to 52 million in 2022.

Smartphone VR headsets sales have collapsed, but standalone devices like the Oculus Go hold great promise
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The market for VR has gone through several phases, according to Wood. “The first wave of consumers used basic cardboard viewers, which helped them understand the potential of the media, but the limited experience meant most people quickly lost interest. We don’t even include such devices in our forecast anymore”. He continues, “Attention then turned to smartphone-based devices such as the Samsung Gear VR and the Zeiss One Plus VR. These have played an important role in raising the awareness of the technology over the past three years, but interest in these devices has now waned”.

Accordingly, the firm’s forecast shows a dramatic drop in sales of smartphone VR devices, from nearly 8 million units in 2017 to fewer than 3 million this year. This decline has occurred despite heavy price cuts and extensive promotions over the past 12 months.

“We believe the device market has now shifted away from the early wave of cheaper, less-functional cardboard and plastic smartphone VR viewers. We expect the next wave of adoption to come from dedicated devices that offer a more compelling, wire-free experience,” Wood concludes.

CCS Insight believes the advent of standalone VR headsets – which overcome the awkwardness of being attached to a PC, smartphone or games console – will help to reinvigorate this product category both for consumers and businesses. Its forecast shows demand in that category growing over 16 times between 2018 and 2022, when 29 million standalone VR headsets are expected to be sold.

CCS Insight expects the market will return to growth in 2019, reaching 14 million devices
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The company believes devices such as Facebook’s Oculus Go and Oculus Quest, which are being offered at retail prices of $200 and $400 respectively, are good examples of the future of VR. Wood also notes that the Chinese market is looking particularly promising and Facebook’s partnership with Xiaomi has helped those headsets make a strong start there.

There is still, however, a role to be played in this market by tethered devices like the Sony PlayStation VR, HTC Vive or Oculus Rift, as currently they still offer a higher quality experience than standalone devices are able to deliver. Accordingly, CCS Insight forecasts that 5 million tethered VR headsets will be sold in 2019, growing to 18 million in 2022.

52 million VR and AR devices will be sold in 2022 with a market value of $8.5 billion
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Sony, which CCS Insight considers as the most successful manufacturer of tethered VR headsets to date, looks set to continue with its strategy of offering its VR headset as an accessory to the large number of PlayStation owners as these devices are best suited to meet the needs of the most dedicated gamers, who want a best-in-class experience.

The report also assesses the market for AR smart glasses, which have so far seen significantly slower adoption compared to VR. The main use for AR devices continues to be in business operations such as customer service, logistics, remote servicing, design and other related applications, and interest remains high in those categories. Although businesses have taken a cautious approach to AR devices, initially focusing on pilot deployments, but CCS Insight believes there are signals of growth as the chart below demonstrates.

The company believes devices such as Facebook's Oculus Go and Oculus Quest, which are being offered at retail prices of $200 and $400 respectively, are good examples of the future of VR
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“We are seeing a rising number of companies committing to deployments of tens or hundreds of augmented reality glasses as they start to see the clear benefits of head-worn technology in the workplace,” explains Wood, although he cautions that this market growth will take time, with cumulative global sales not expected to top 1 million units before 2021.

When thinking about AR glasses for consumers, Wood notes that these devices continue to be “more common in science fiction than in real life” with little evidence of a product with mass-market appeal any time soon. Nevertheless, CCS Insight’s long-range forecast does include a scenario of accelerated adoption if a major consumer brand like Apple decides to enter the market.

Yet in Tech Trends’ humble view, with Magic Leap finally entering the arena this year and a new version of the HoloLens expected to be unveiled by Microsoft next year, it could be that this tipping point might arrive even sooner, and perhaps even driven (perish the thought!) by players other than Apple. Watch this space…

We are seeing a rising number of companies committing to deployments of tens or hundreds of augmented reality glasses as they start to see the clear benefits of head-worn technology in the workplace
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For companies looking to get into Immersive technologies our Consultancy service offers support in strategic leveraging VR/AR/MR/XR

Alice Bonasio is a VR Consultant and Tech Trends’ Editor in Chief. She also regularly writes for Fast Company, Ars Technica, Quartz, Wired and others. Connect with her on LinkedIn and follow @alicebonasio on Twitter.

The post Report: VR Device Market Outlook appeared first on Tech Trends.

2018 has been good for smart wearables, with an estimated 117 million devices to be sold by the end of the year according to CCS Insight. The analyst firm expects that figure to double to 233 million in 2022 with a market value of over $27 billion.

2018 has been a good year for smart wearables
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Leading the charge are smartwatches, with 85 million units expected to be sold in 2019, growing to 137 million in 2022. This forecast covers a wide range of smartwatches, including smart sports watches, smart analogue watches, smartwatches with built-in connected location trackers specifically designed for children, and smartwatches with cellular connectivity.

Smart hearables are another important wearable device category
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Smartwatches continue to gain in popularity, primarily thanks to the success of market leader Apple, which extended its product range with the launch of its Series 4 Apple Watch in September. The company is also offering the Apple Watch at the broadest range of prices so far, making it more accessible to iPhone owners.

Deeper analysis of the fitness tracker market signals solid demand in China even though demand in Western markets has stalled
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A key factor in this is increased engagement, as a recent smartwatch user survey conducted by CCS Insight found that more than 90 percent of respondents use their smartwatch most days.

“The combination of Apple’s success with its Watch and the high engagement levels we’re seeing among smartwatch owners reflects the value people are now placing on these products,” explains CCS Insight’s senior analyst for wearables, George Jijiashvili. “It’s a step change from a few years ago, when we consistently saw high levels of abandonment from early smartwatch users, who quickly became disenchanted with initial products”.

CCS Insight believes the high engagement among current smartwatch owners will provoke a wave of replacement sales in coming years. The company believes Apple is best positioned to take advantage of this, particularly with the latest update to the Apple Watch series. However, it also notes that growing awareness and satisfaction with smartwatches among technology enthusiasts will help to broaden the potential market, with wrist-worn wearables from new brands making progress.

“The Apple Watch has done well because it’s bought by iPhone owners. People with Android smartphones represent a far bigger market and we believe that conditions are right for the next wave of smartwatch adoption thanks to an ever-improving selection of smartwatches from fashion and consumer electronics brands hit the market,” says Jijiashvili.

The research firm notes that Fitbit’s smartwatches have seen solid uptake during 2018 and it is also positive about the opportunity for smartwatches powered by the recently revamped Wear OS from Google, particularly when combined with an updated technology platform from chipmaker Qualcomm.

“We’re hugely encouraged that established watchmakers such as Fossil are betting their future on a wide range of smartwatches for several fashion brands such as Diesel, Michael Kors and Skagen, and premium watchmakers such as Louis Vuitton, Montblanc and TAG Heuer continue to invest in this area. When you combine this with the renewed interest in smartwatches from leading smartphone makers such as Huawei and Samsung, you can see a groundswell of activity that signals a positive outlook for the market”.

The company believes that the growing proportion of cellular-enabled smartwatches also represents a great opportunity for mobile network operators:

“As cellular-enabled smartwatches take an increasing share of the market, operators have the chance to derive new revenue from the additional monthly fees they can charge users, particularly as the ability to offer one number on multiple devices continues to grow”. However, Jijiashvili cautions that “operators must ensure they don’t get greedy with the fees they charge to connect smartwatches or they risk dampening demand for the promising new product category”.

CCS Insight believes growing adoption of basic cellular-enabled watches, predominantly aimed at kids, is an important factor in the wearables market. The demand for these devices is especially strong in China and there are signs of interest in other regions, despite modest uptake so far, partly because of privacy concerns. However, several mobile operators beyond China are assessing the potential of these devices. A notable example is Vodafone, which now offers a range of wearable products as part of its V by Vodafone initiative; this range includes a smartwatch for children.

A recent user survey conducted by CCS Insight found that more than 90 percent of respondents use their smartwatch most days
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CCS Insight also notes the increasingly important role of Chinese supplier Huami. It expects Huami to make and sell more than 26 million devices with its own brands and with that of its partner Xiaomi in 2018. At present, most of these are fitness trackers, but more than 2 million units will be smart sports watches. Huami’s success has buoyed the worldwide fitness tracker market, which will record total sales of 43 million units in 2018, after a dip to 39 million in 2017.

“Deeper analysis of the fitness tracker market signals solid demand in China even though demand in Western markets has stalled. Fitbit, the brand synonymous with fitness trackers, has struggled to maintain its growth trajectory in fitness trackers but is hoping to offset this with the recent success of its smartwatch product line-up”.

Smart hearables are another important wearable device category CCS Insight highlights, predicting that the growing number of smart connected headphones will boost sales to 27 million in 2022.

“We’ve seen some excellent products in this area over the past year from companies like Bragi, Jabra, Samsung and Sony. It’s only a matter of time before Apple adds more functions to its AirPods, which will see them fall into our definition of smart hearables. If this happens, Apple could kick-start this device category like it shook up the smartwatch market with the Apple Watch,” Jijiashvili concludes

Alice Bonasio is a VR Consultant and Tech Trends’ Editor in Chief. She also regularly writes for Fast Company, Ars Technica, Quartz, Wired and others. Connect with her on LinkedIn and follow @alicebonasio and @techtrends_tech on Twitter.

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5G connections will surpass one billion by 2023 according to CCS insights.

We have recently seen a flurry of operators stating their ambitions to rollout 5G services more quickly than previously planned. This has prompted tech analyst firm CCS Insight to revise its forecast, raising near-term expectations for these services.

Their new report now predicts that 5G connections will reach 340 million in 2021, before surpassing 1 billion in the first half of 2023. By 2025, the total is expected to hit 2.7 billion, equivalent to more than one connection in every five in the world.

“The intentions of major US carriers to launch 5G in late 2018 have been clear for a while. But recently we’ve seen greater urgency to deploy networks from providers in Europe, the Middle East and China,” said Kester Mann, principal analyst at CCS Insight. “While Europe may still be around a year adrift of the leading markets in 5G, some regional operators are clearly determined to launch commercial services as soon as next year”.

Last week, Telia launched a pre-commercial 5G network in Helsinki in preparation for a full commercial offering in 2019. The Nordic provider has a pedigree in early launches of mobile technology, having claimed to be “first in the world” to launch commercial 4G, in late 2009.

The new report by CCS Insights now predicts that 5G connections will reach 340 million in 2021
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Recent bullish statements from other networks including Telecom Italia, BT, Swisscom and Telenor point to 5G becoming a commercial reality in Europe sooner than previously assumed. Finnish operator Elisa has even gone a step further, claiming to have launched a commercial network already – albeit without supporting devices.

These ambitions contrast with the more cautious approach of major groups like Vodafone, Orange, Deutsche Telekom and Telefonica, which have only committed to commercial 5G services in 2020. “Nevertheless, once networks are launched, the motivation to bring users onto them will be huge”, says Mann.

5G connections worldwide, 2018-2025 Source: CCS Insight Market Forecast: 5G Connections, Worldwide, 2018-2015

Recently we've seen greater urgency to deploy 5G networks from providers in Europe, the Middle East and China
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Another region with a positive near-term outlook is the Middle East, after a quartet of regional providers made bold claims of early network deployments within days of each other in May 2018. According to the report, these assertions are likely to have been motivated by local one-upmanship, yet illustrate more bullish expectations for the region than previously assumed.

The iPhone is unlikely to be among the first 5G phones in 2019
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The report further states that it expects China to overtake the US to become the biggest 5G market in 2020, with 40 million connections. By 2025, connections in China will surpass 1 billion, accounting for nearly four connections in every ten worldwide. The country remains the biggest source globally of 5G adoption by far, with indications that the country’s largest operator, China Mobile, may launch ahead of previous expectations, in 2019. Additionally, local infrastructure suppliers Huawei and ZTE may sharpen their focus on the domestic market following recent geopolitical tension that has led to more challenging environments in several markets, including the US and Australia. And a potential merger of China Telecom and China Unicom has been rumoured to be driven by a desire to achieve global 5G supremacy.

In the US, carriers are gearing up to launch the first commercial 5G networks, possibly as soon as this month. The initial focus will be on fixed wireless technology, but without supporting smartphones this will remain a niche opportunity, as it will account for just one percent of 5G connections worldwide by 2025.

China is expected to overtake the US as the biggest 5G market in 2020
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Indeed, all these early network launches wouldn’t allow users to move to 5G connections without the efforts of smartphone makers and chipset suppliers to deliver the first 5G-enabled mobile phones as soon as Spring 2019. The very first handsets will have room for improvement, but by the end of 2019, it is expected that many major flagship smartphones will support the new technology. especially in affluent countries. The iPhone is unlikely to be among the first 5G phones in 2019. But despite Apple’s possible late arrival, almost 60 million 5G-enabled smartphones are forecast to be sold in 2019.

“This means Android smartphone makers will jump at the opportunity to offer some innovation in the hope of tempting people to replace their phone next year”, concludes Marina Koytcheva, vice president of forecasting at CCS Insight.

Alice Bonasio is a VR and Digital Transformation Consultant and Tech Trends’ Editor in Chief. She also regularly writes for Fast Company, Ars Technica, Quartz, Wired and others. Connect with her on LinkedIn and follow @alicebonasio on Twitter.

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The way we process and share information is changing, and that has implications for how we do business too.

The latest report Truth, Trust & The Future of Commerce by Sparks and Honey, was created in collaboration with the World Economic Forum and examines the forces shaping the future of commerce.

We’re told that we live in the information age and that the modern digital economy is data-driven, but what does that mean in practice?
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This goes beyond just buying and selling, but also digs deeper into the commercial aspects involved in the exchange of information. We’re constantly told that we live in the information age and that the modern digital economy is data-driven, but what does that actually mean in practice?

This research dives deeper into a few areas of culture and innovation that are driving change in this space, including:

• How tech is “hacking humans” – voice tech and “camera culture” are fragmenting our reality/concept of truth and trust
• The major investment in genomics from the big tech players like Amazon, Google – how biotech will reshape commerce as we know it
• How cultural shifts/trends around production & consumption (like the growing trend of on-demand manufacturing – driven by advanced tech) and people & automation (jobless growth) are shaping the future of commerce

Biotech will reshape commerce as we know it
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See the slideshare presentation for the report below:

Voice tech & camera culture are fragmenting our concept of truth and trust
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For companies looking to leverage Immersive technologies such as VR/AR/MR/XR Tech Trends offers a comprehensive range of Virtual Reality Consultancy Services.

Alice Bonasio is a VR and Digital Transformation Consultant and Tech Trends’ Editor in Chief. She also regularly writes for Fast Company, Ars Technica, Quartz, Wired and others. Connect with her on LinkedIn and follow @alicebonasio on Twitter.

The post Report: Trust and the Future of Commerce appeared first on Tech Trends.